Too Good To Be True??

Are we cooking the books?

Donor Abacus^TM has been in use through the founder’s consulting firm, Copley Raff, for more than 8 years, and has been available to subscribers since 2023. During that time, the Abacus team has collected all donor profiles created and the actual pledge amounts from 38 donors.

These gifts were solicited by Copley Raff consultants, staff, and volunteer leaders of the firm’s clients, and Abacus subscribers – often in the context of a capital or program campaign.

The Abacus results page provides three numbers:

• A readiness score expressed as a percentage up to 100% – does the fundraiser have enough of the best information to help ensure a successful outcome?
• A recommended aspirational 3-year pledge ask amount.
• An expected pledge goal or outcome. We use this figure as our metric to assess Abacus’s predictive accuracy. 

We don’t use complex mathematics to achieve Abacus’ current predictive accuracy of up to 95% on actual pledges. We simply add up the total goal and pledge amounts and compare them. We also add up the total recommended ask amounts and the low end of third-party capacity ratings. Here are the results.

As you see, the total aspirational asks exceed actual pledges by 19%, meaning fundraisers were neither excessive in their asks nor did they “leave money on the table.” On the other hand, actual gifts were within 1% of the recommended Abacus Goals, validating the model’s high predictive accuracy.

We also saw a linear relationship between the readiness score and predictive accuracy. The higher the readiness score, the better the predictive accuracy.

The solicitation team should always review the aspirational but respectful pledge-ask amount provided by Abacus for a reality check and to help fundraisers feel more confident when engaging donors. Donors’ recent life events, such as a divorce or a significant business change, should be factored into the decision on the ask amount.

“Abacus is the solution that picks up where wealth estimates leave off, to give me Asks that I can count on.” Melissa Kogut, VP of Development, Riverside Community Care, MA

Preparation

Abacus assumes the fundraiser has an established relationship with the donor, the case for philanthropic support was discussed with the donor, and that a properly curated and prepared solicitation team is part of the gift discussion. 

 If you do the basics, Abacus can help you achieve great success with your major donor program.

 Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash